Project sizing — small or large, and what it does to price
Should you buy a boutique 50-unit block, a 150-unit project, a 300-unit one, or a 400-plus development — and is “300 and above” already about the same? To answer it cleanly we hold the two things that usually dominate price constant: we compare every project only against its same-tenure neighbours in the same MRT catchment, so location and tenure are fixed and the only thing changing is the number of units. Then we read the $psf across size bands — once for Freehold, once for 99-year leasehold, because those are two different buyers with two different answers.
- Freehold: $psf climbs with size to a peak around 200–300 units (~+12% vs neighbours), then plateaus — 300, 500 or more are about the same.
- Leasehold is punished when small: a ≤50-unit 99-yr project trades about 16% below its same-tenure neighbours; the discount only lifts once you clear ~100–200 units.
- Past ~300 units, size barely moves $psf for either tenure — 300, 500 and 800-unit projects sit within a whisker.
- Best for: freehold — aim for the 150–300-unit sweet spot; leasehold — treat 300 units as a floor, then pick on location and quality, not size.
The answer, in one line each
Aim for ~150–300 units
Freehold $psf climbs steadily with size: a boutique (≤50 units) trades about -5% below its freehold neighbours, and the premium builds to a peak around 200–300 units (~+12%). Past ~300 it broadly plateaus — 300, 500 or more are about the same. Only buy a sub-50-unit freehold if it’s a genuine trophy address; otherwise you’re paying a small-project discount.
Get to 300+ units; never go small
Small leasehold is punished hard: ≤50 units trade about -16% below their leasehold neighbours, and under 100 units stays deeply discounted. $psf jumps once you pass ~100–200 units, then flattens — 300, 500 and 800-unit projects sit within a whisker of each other. For leasehold, clear the scale threshold (aim 300+ for full facilities and a liquid resale market); size beyond that barely moves $psf.
The size–price curve
Each line is median $psf by project size, measured against same-tenure neighbours in the same MRT catchment (the 0% line = “trades exactly at the local median”). Read left-to-right as projects get bigger. Freehold (green) keeps climbing then levels off; leasehold (amber) starts far lower for small projects, then catches up and plateaus.
| Project size | Freehold $psf vs local | n | 99-LH $psf vs local | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤50 | -5% | 673 | -16% | 17 |
| 51–100 | +0% | 331 | -13% | 31 |
| 101–200 | +7% | 216 | -1% | 62 |
| 201–300 | +12% | 72 | -1% | 53 |
| 301–500 | +9% | 46 | +0% | 131 |
| 501–800 | +12% | 16 | +0% | 141 |
| 800+ | +38% | 3 | +4% | 43 |
Why freehold and leasehold answer differently
Freehold owns its land forever, so even a small block holds value — the small-project discount is mild, and buyers reward size gradually (more facilities, a deeper resale pool) until it saturates around 200–300 units. Leasehold has no permanent land value to fall back on, so what you’re really buying is the development itself — its facilities, management and resale liquidity. A tiny leasehold project offers little of that and a wasting lease on top, which is why small 99-year projects trade at such a steep discount. Once a leasehold development is big enough to carry full condo facilities and an active resale market (~200–300+ units), it prices like its peers — and going even bigger adds almost nothing.
For an investor the practical rule falls out cleanly: freehold — the mid-large band (150–300 units) is the value sweet spot; leasehold — treat 300 units as a floor, not a target, and choose between 300/500/800 on location and quality rather than size.
See the clusters on the map
Every private project, coloured and sized by how many units it has — small (amber) to large (green). Toggle to Freehold or 99-year leasehold to see, in any neighbourhood, the mix of small and large projects sitting side by side — the comparable clusters this whole analysis is built on. Click any dot to open its project page.
99-year leasehold, area by area
The curve above pools the whole island, which can feel abstract. So here are two real leasehold heartlands in plain numbers. For each, we group the 99-year projects by size band and show how many there are, their median $psf, a typical price, and how new they are. Read each table top-to-bottom — small projects first, large projects last.
| Units | Projects | Median $psf | Typical price | Median TOP | Examples | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤100 | 5 | $1,124 | $1.4M | 2001 | Kovan Grandeur, The Sunnydale | |
| 101–200 | 4 | $1,649 | $1.1M | 2014 | Bartley Vue, Cardiff Residence | |
| 301–500 | 11 | $1,608 | $1.5M | 2012 | Kovan Regency, The Scala | |
| 501–800 | 15 | $1,872 | $1.5M | 2016 | The Woodleigh Residences, Forest Woods | |
| 800+ | 6 | $1,868 | $1.4M | 2022 | Park Colonial, Bartley Ridge |
| Units | Projects | Median $psf | Typical price | Median TOP | Examples | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 201–300 | 1 | $1,334 | $1.1M | 2015 | Seletar Park Residence | |
| 301–500 | 12 | $1,403 | $1.3M | 2015 | Rivertrees Residences, Waterbay | |
| 501–800 | 21 | $1,525 | $1.4M | 2016 | Ola, Parc Centros | |
| 800+ | 7 | $1,638 | $1.2M | 2017 | La Fiesta, Watertown |
The simple answer for these two estates
Hougang & Serangoon (mature estate): the low $psf you see in the ≤100-unit band is a handful of small, old blocks (~2001) — cheap on paper, but aging leasehold with few facilities and limited upside. The strongest $psf sits in the large, newer projects: 500–800 units (~$1,870) and 800+ (~$1,870) trade about the same, so scale stops paying past ~500 units. Buy a large, newer development (300–800 units); don’t chase a tiny old block for its low headline price, and don’t pay extra for 800+ over 500.
Sengkang & Punggol (young new town): there are almost no small projects here — the town was built as large condos, nearly all 300+ units. And $psf keeps climbing with size: 300–500 (~$1,400) → 500–800 (~$1,520) → 800+ (~$1,640). The mega-developments lead. Go as large as your budget allows — the 800-unit landmark projects hold the top $psf.
Bottom line for leasehold new towns: size is your friend — clear ~300 units. In a young town like Punggol the biggest projects lead; in a mature one like Hougang the gains flatten past ~500. Small leasehold blocks are the weak spot in both.
Freehold, area by area — Farrer Park
Now the same lens on a freehold city-fringe pocket: Farrer Park, where Serangoon Road meets Jalan Besar. It’s the perfect test case because the area is packed with tiny freehold blocks — so we can ask directly whether “freehold” alone is enough, or whether size still matters even when the land is yours forever.
| Units | Projects | Median $psf | Typical price | Median TOP | Examples | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤100 | 63 | $1,494 | $1.1M | 2009 | The Ranz, Novena Suites | |
| 101–200 | 7 | $1,818 | $1.2M | 2015 | The Arcady At Boon Keng, One St Michael'S | |
| 201–300 | 3 | $1,682 | $1.8M | 2012 | Parc Emily, Cityscape @Farrer Park | |
| 800+ | 1 | $2,066 | $1.9M | 2009 | City Square Residences |
The simple answer for Farrer Park
This pocket is flooded with small freehold projects — more than 50 of them are under 50 units — and those are exactly the ones trading at the lowest $psf (~$1,410). Being freehold does not rescue a tiny block. Step up to a 100–200-unit project and $psf is ~$1,820 (about +29%), and the one large freehold development in the area — the 910-unit City Square Residences — tops the lot at ~$2,060. Same tenure, same neighbourhood: the bigger, full-facility projects simply hold a higher $psf.
What to buy here: don’t be seduced by a cheap-looking “freehold” shoebox block — in Farrer Park those are the laggards, and they can be slow to resell. Favour the larger freehold projects (100+ units, ideally the big full-facility ones) for a stronger $psf and an easier exit. Freehold protects the land value; scale is what protects the price.
Deeper evidence — apples-to-apples cohorts
Zooming out from single catchments, here are three cohorts that fix age and tenure across the whole island and let price spread — each shown as a map (dots coloured by $psf), a bubble chart (price vs unit size) and the full table. They corroborate the curve above: within a fixed vintage and tenure, scale and format lift $psf in the heartland, while in the prime freehold core address does the work.
1 · Prime freehold, one vintage (D9/10/11, 2012–2018)
84 freehold projects of the same era — tenure and age held fixed.
In prime freehold, unit format beats project size
Median $psf spans $1,550–$6,013 (3.9×). It tracks unit size (corr +0.67) far more than the number of units (+0.04) — here scarcity and large-format luxury, not scale, set the price.
The ceiling is Sculptura Ardmore (D10) at $6,013 psf; the floor 8 Bassein near $1,550. Both freehold, both ~a decade old — the gap is address and unit format.
| Project | District | Lease left | TOP | Units | Size | $psf | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sculptura Ardmore | D10 | Freehold | 2014 | 34 | 3,277 | $6,013 | $18.88M |
| Le Nouvel Ardmore | D10 | Freehold | 2014 | 43 | 3,886 | $4,682 | $18.48M |
| New Futura | D9 | Freehold | 2017 | 124 | 2,691 | $4,088 | $8.90M |
| Tomlinson Heights | D10 | Freehold | 2014 | 70 | 2,745 | $3,913 | $10.29M |
| Twentyone Angullia Park | D9 | Freehold | 2014 | 54 | 2,314 | $3,748 | $9.75M |
| 3 Orchard By-The-Park | D10 | Freehold | 2017 | 77 | 2,260 | $3,605 | $8.10M |
| Ardmore Three | D10 | Freehold | 2014 | 84 | 1,776 | $3,450 | $6.15M |
| Nouvel 18 | D10 | Freehold | 2014 | 156 | 1,765 | $3,138 | $5.68M |
| Sage | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 33 | 4,564 | $3,135 | $12.80M |
| Bishopsgate Residences | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 29 | 2,928 | $3,084 | $10.68M |
| 8 Saint Thomas | D9 | Freehold | 2018 | 250 | 1,302 | $2,964 | $3.46M |
| Centennia Suites | D9 | Freehold | 2013 | 97 | 1,787 | $2,859 | $5.10M |
| Gramercy Park | D10 | Freehold | 2016 | 174 | 2,153 | $2,858 | $6.79M |
| The Laurels | D9 | Freehold | 2013 | 229 | 883 | $2,850 | $2.47M |
| Leedon Residence | D10 | Freehold | 2015 | 381 | 2,131 | $2,828 | $6.10M |
| Goodwood Residence | D10 | Freehold | 2013 | 210 | 2,486 | $2,812 | $6.85M |
| Viva | D11 | Freehold | 2012 | 235 | 1,346 | $2,801 | $3.48M |
| Urban Suites | D9 | Freehold | 2013 | 165 | 1,604 | $2,794 | $5.08M |
| Cyan | D10 | Freehold | 2014 | 278 | 1,130 | $2,731 | $2.71M |
| Goodwood Grand | D10 | Freehold | 2017 | 65 | 1,044 | $2,709 | $2.64M |
| One Balmoral | D10 | Freehold | 2016 | 91 | 1,184 | $2,681 | $2.66M |
| The Vermont On Cairnhill | D9 | Freehold | 2013 | 158 | 1,335 | $2,572 | $3.37M |
| Loft@Holland | D10 | Freehold | 2014 | 41 | 323 | $2,518 | $858,888 |
| Trilight | D11 | Freehold | 2012 | 205 | 1,195 | $2,509 | $2.98M |
| Treasure On Balmoral | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 48 | 1,883 | $2,497 | $4.74M |
| The Asana | D10 | Freehold | 2017 | 48 | 635 | $2,483 | $1.49M |
| Volari | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 85 | 2,034 | $2,446 | $4.70M |
| Parvis | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 248 | 1,991 | $2,414 | $4.28M |
| Urban Resort Condominium | D9 | Freehold | 2013 | 64 | 2,121 | $2,404 | $5.25M |
| Robin Residences | D10 | Freehold | 2015 | 134 | 775 | $2,397 | $1.86M |
| The Glyndebourne | D11 | Freehold | 2013 | 150 | 1,981 | $2,394 | $4.30M |
| Espada | D9 | Freehold | 2013 | 232 | 452 | $2,366 | $1.09M |
| Madison Residences | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 56 | 1,464 | $2,321 | $3.86M |
| Liv On Wilkie | D9 | Freehold | 2017 | 81 | 527 | $2,313 | $1.21M |
| Liv On Sophia | D9 | Freehold | 2016 | 64 | 538 | $2,312 | $1.23M |
| Robin Suites | D10 | Freehold | 2016 | 92 | 463 | $2,308 | $1.10M |
| Skyline 360 @ St Thomas Walk | D9 | Freehold | 2012 | 61 | 2,131 | $2,290 | $4.35M |
| Holland Residences | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 83 | 1,356 | $2,281 | $2.92M |
| L'Viv | D11 | Freehold | 2013 | 147 | 990 | $2,272 | $1.93M |
| Cluny Park Residence | D10 | Freehold | 2016 | 52 | 1,216 | $2,261 | $2.93M |
| Residences @ Killiney | D9 | Freehold | 2012 | 68 | 1,550 | $2,258 | $3.60M |
| The Boutiq | D9 | Freehold | 2014 | 130 | 877 | $2,250 | $1.79M |
| Loft @ Stevens | D10 | Freehold | 2013 | 44 | 414 | $2,243 | $905,000 |
| Nathan Suites | D10 | Freehold | 2014 | 65 | 1,808 | $2,239 | $4.31M |
| 26 Newton | D11 | Freehold | 2016 | 180 | 775 | $2,217 | $1.75M |
| 1919 | D9 | Freehold | 2015 | 75 | 700 | $2,210 | $1.49M |
| Gilstead Two | D11 | Freehold | 2014 | 110 | 775 | $2,194 | $1.73M |
| Verdure | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 69 | 1,593 | $2,172 | $2.81M |
| Buckley Classique | D11 | Freehold | 2014 | 64 | 1,410 | $2,166 | $3.23M |
| Suites @ Newton | D11 | Freehold | 2016 | 67 | 603 | $2,157 | $1.29M |
| Oxley Residence | D9 | Freehold | 2014 | 12 | 2,573 | $2,157 | $5.90M |
| The Trizon | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 289 | 1,894 | $2,150 | $3.38M |
| Lincoln Suites | D11 | Freehold | 2014 | 175 | 1,098 | $2,137 | $2.35M |
| Three Balmoral | D10 | Freehold | 2016 | 40 | 1,292 | $2,135 | $2.25M |
| Lush On Holland Hill | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 56 | 1,561 | $2,134 | $3.30M |
| Waterscape At Cavenagh | D9 | Freehold | 2014 | 200 | 1,313 | $2,117 | $2.54M |
| Rv Edge | D10 | Freehold | 2013 | 108 | 420 | $2,097 | $856,500 |
| The Peak @ Cairnhill Ii | D9 | Freehold | 2015 | 60 | 904 | $2,096 | $1.89M |
| Sophia Residence | D9 | Freehold | 2014 | 272 | 1,453 | $2,082 | $2.69M |
| Ferrell Residences | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 34 | 1,841 | $2,063 | $3.80M |
| Devonshire Residences | D9 | Freehold | 2015 | 84 | 506 | $2,060 | $1.12M |
| The Peak @ Cairnhill I | D9 | Freehold | 2014 | 52 | 592 | $2,048 | $1.20M |
| Adria | D11 | Freehold | 2013 | 105 | 850 | $2,046 | $1.80M |
| The Mercury | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 67 | 635 | $2,039 | $1.32M |
| M5 | D10 | Freehold | 2018 | 33 | 608 | $2,037 | $1.32M |
| Nathan Residences | D10 | Freehold | 2013 | 91 | 775 | $2,027 | $1.58M |
| Starlight Suites | D9 | Freehold | 2014 | 105 | 850 | $2,023 | $1.68M |
| 10 Shelford | D11 | Freehold | 2014 | 69 | 452 | $1,991 | $889,000 |
| Cube 8 | D11 | Freehold | 2013 | 177 | 926 | $1,991 | $1.66M |
| Hijauan | D9 | Freehold | 2015 | 41 | 877 | $1,984 | $1.74M |
| 6 Derbyshire | D11 | Freehold | 2017 | 168 | 732 | $1,970 | $1.59M |
| Suites @ Shrewsbury | D11 | Freehold | 2012 | 15 | 334 | $1,930 | $695,000 |
| Oxley Edge | D9 | Freehold | 2016 | 45 | 436 | $1,903 | $895,000 |
| Stellar Rv | D10 | Freehold | 2015 | 120 | 538 | $1,880 | $1.03M |
| The Mkz | D9 | Freehold | 2014 | 42 | 603 | $1,858 | $990,000 |
| Loft @ Nathan | D10 | Freehold | 2014 | 121 | 463 | $1,854 | $880,000 |
| 368 Thomson | D11 | Freehold | 2014 | 157 | 872 | $1,844 | $1.55M |
| Novena Regency | D11 | Freehold | 2015 | 55 | 560 | $1,828 | $1.17M |
| Rv Suites | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 96 | 538 | $1,806 | $1.03M |
| Stevens Suites | D10 | Freehold | 2013 | 32 | 1,109 | $1,800 | $2.00M |
| Hallmark Residences | D10 | Freehold | 2015 | 75 | 1,501 | $1,793 | $3.13M |
| Miro | D11 | Freehold | 2012 | 85 | 1,346 | $1,602 | $2.10M |
| Jade Garden | D10 | Freehold | 2012 | 12 | 1,760 | $1,560 | $2.75M |
| 8 Bassein | D11 | Freehold | 2015 | 74 | 452 | $1,550 | $838,000 |
2 · 99-year new towns, one build wave (2015–2020)
84 leasehold projects in the mass-market OCR new towns, same age and lease balance.
Location and scale set the spread
A tighter $1,200–$2,168 (1.8×). Smaller units carry a higher $psf (size corr -0.33, the quantum effect) and larger developments trade higher (units corr +0.27) — the same scale premium the curve above shows for leasehold.
Priciest is Forest Woods (D19, $2,168), an MRT-integrated project; cheapest Forestville ($1,200), larger units further out. Same 99-year clock — the gap is transport and quantum.
| Project | District | Lease left | TOP | Units | Size | $psf | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Woods | D19 | ~89 yrs | 2020 | 519 | 926 | $2,168 | $2.12M |
| J Gateway | D22 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 738 | 678 | $2,138 | $1.25M |
| Botanique At Bartley | D19 | ~87 yrs | 2019 | 797 | 721 | $2,009 | $1.27M |
| Kovan Regency | D19 | ~85 yrs | 2015 | 378 | 893 | $2,000 | $1.51M |
| Stars Of Kovan | D19 | ~88 yrs | 2019 | 390 | 743 | $1,934 | $1.32M |
| Hundred Palms Residences | D19 | 99-yr | 2019 | 531 | 969 | $1,901 | $1.80M |
| Lake Grande | D22 | ~88 yrs | 2019 | 710 | 775 | $1,893 | $1.31M |
| North Park Residences | D27 | ~88 yrs | 2018 | 920 | 700 | $1,859 | $1.31M |
| Lakeville | D22 | ~86 yrs | 2017 | 696 | 936 | $1,839 | $1.38M |
| Bartley Residences | D19 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 702 | 904 | $1,795 | $1.49M |
| Jewel @ Buangkok | D19 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 616 | 775 | $1,794 | $1.28M |
| La Fiesta | D19 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 810 | 840 | $1,783 | $1.28M |
| Hillion Residences | D23 | ~86 yrs | 2017 | 546 | 474 | $1,772 | $820,000 |
| The Tampines Trilliant | D18 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 670 | 1,012 | $1,741 | $1.59M |
| Parc Centros | D19 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 618 | 764 | $1,716 | $1.26M |
| The Skywoods | D23 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 420 | 990 | $1,709 | $1.48M |
| Watertown | D19 | ~84 yrs | 2017 | 992 | 603 | $1,706 | $960,000 |
| Coco Palms | D18 | ~81 yrs | 2018 | 944 | 904 | $1,696 | $1.29M |
| The Luxurie | D19 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 622 | 936 | $1,668 | $1.26M |
| Le Quest | D23 | 99-yr | 2020 | 516 | 807 | $1,655 | $1.22M |
| Citylife@Tampines | D18 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 514 | 1,249 | $1,654 | $1.73M |
| High Park Residences | D28 | ~87 yrs | 2019 | 1,376 | 667 | $1,648 | $1.01M |
| A Treasure Trove | D19 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 882 | 1,044 | $1,638 | $1.42M |
| Rivercove Residences | D19 | 99-yr | 2020 | 628 | 1,076 | $1,628 | $1.59M |
| Eco Sanctuary | D23 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 483 | 775 | $1,626 | $1.15M |
| Rivertrees Residences | D28 | ~86 yrs | 2017 | 487 | 947 | $1,622 | $1.23M |
| The Vales | D19 | ~87 yrs | 2017 | 517 | 915 | $1,612 | $1.25M |
| Midtown Residences | D19 | ~86 yrs | 2016 | 160 | 646 | $1,596 | $910,000 |
| Twin Waterfalls | D19 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 728 | 1,109 | $1,572 | $1.46M |
| Treasure Crest | D19 | 99-yr | 2018 | 504 | 1,076 | $1,570 | $1.55M |
| The Palette | D18 | ~83 yrs | 2015 | 892 | 1,066 | $1,548 | $1.37M |
| Wandervale | D23 | 99-yr | 2018 | 534 | 1,098 | $1,546 | $1.47M |
| The Topiary | D28 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 700 | 1,055 | $1,536 | $1.39M |
| The Brownstone | D27 | 99-yr | 2017 | 638 | 947 | $1,528 | $1.30M |
| Bellewaters | D19 | ~86 yrs | 2017 | 651 | 1,130 | $1,527 | $1.47M |
| Sol Acres | D23 | ~87 yrs | 2018 | 1,327 | 872 | $1,527 | $1.16M |
| River Isles | D19 | ~85 yrs | 2015 | 610 | 1,173 | $1,525 | $1.39M |
| The Terrace | D19 | ~86 yrs | 2017 | 747 | 1,076 | $1,525 | $1.40M |
| D'Nest | D18 | ~83 yrs | 2017 | 912 | 936 | $1,516 | $1.13M |
| The Alps Residences | D18 | 99-yr | 2019 | 626 | 700 | $1,512 | $995,000 |
| The Hillier | D23 | ~84 yrs | 2016 | 528 | 624 | $1,510 | $925,000 |
| The Visionaire | D27 | ~88 yrs | 2018 | 632 | 980 | $1,501 | $1.38M |
| Waterbay | D19 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 383 | 1,114 | $1,498 | $1.36M |
| Waterwoods | D19 | ~86 yrs | 2015 | 373 | 1,281 | $1,498 | $1.38M |
| The Santorini | D18 | ~86 yrs | 2017 | 597 | 904 | $1,498 | $1.12M |
| Q Bay Residences | D18 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 630 | 829 | $1,495 | $1.20M |
| H2O Residences | D28 | ~83 yrs | 2015 | 521 | 883 | $1,494 | $1.19M |
| The Amore | D19 | ~86 yrs | 2016 | 378 | 1,098 | $1,487 | $1.35M |
| Vue 8 Residence | D18 | ~85 yrs | 2017 | 463 | 1,038 | $1,479 | $1.39M |
| The Rainforest | D23 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 466 | 1,130 | $1,478 | $1.37M |
| Riversails | D19 | ~84 yrs | 2016 | 920 | 947 | $1,477 | $1.25M |
| Riverbank @ Fernvale | D28 | ~86 yrs | 2017 | 555 | 1,012 | $1,476 | $1.22M |
| Kingsford Hillview Peak | D23 | ~85 yrs | 2017 | 512 | 775 | $1,469 | $1.03M |
| Flo Residence | D19 | ~84 yrs | 2016 | 530 | 1,012 | $1,468 | $1.24M |
| Lake Life | D22 | ~86 yrs | 2016 | 546 | 1,119 | $1,466 | $1.45M |
| Kingsford Waterbay | D19 | ~87 yrs | 2018 | 1,157 | 689 | $1,458 | $1.00M |
| Inz Residence | D23 | ~88 yrs | 2019 | 497 | 1,033 | $1,456 | $1.45M |
| Lush Acres | D28 | ~86 yrs | 2016 | 380 | 1,130 | $1,449 | $1.40M |
| Riversound Residence | D19 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 590 | 1,066 | $1,442 | $1.42M |
| Skypark Residences | D27 | ~86 yrs | 2016 | 506 | 1,302 | $1,438 | $1.58M |
| Boathouse Residences | D19 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 493 | 915 | $1,418 | $1.24M |
| Ecopolitan | D19 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 512 | 1,195 | $1,416 | $1.39M |
| Ripple Bay | D18 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 679 | 786 | $1,410 | $1.09M |
| Woodhaven | D25 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 298 | 700 | $1,406 | $845,000 |
| Parc Life | D27 | 99-yr | 2018 | 628 | 1,055 | $1,406 | $1.35M |
| Westwood Residences | D22 | 99-yr | 2017 | 480 | 1,033 | $1,395 | $1.34M |
| Heron Bay | D19 | ~85 yrs | 2015 | 394 | 1,227 | $1,388 | $1.37M |
| Stratum | D18 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 380 | 775 | $1,382 | $888,000 |
| The Wisteria | D27 | ~88 yrs | 2018 | 216 | 710 | $1,381 | $999,000 |
| Hillsta | D23 | ~84 yrs | 2016 | 396 | 624 | $1,366 | $790,000 |
| Symphony Suites | D27 | ~87 yrs | 2018 | 660 | 797 | $1,366 | $1.06M |
| The Criterion | D27 | ~87 yrs | 2018 | 505 | 1,017 | $1,362 | $1.25M |
| Bellewoods | D25 | ~86 yrs | 2017 | 561 | 1,152 | $1,345 | $1.34M |
| Seletar Park Residence | D28 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 276 | 872 | $1,334 | $1.15M |
| Nine Residences | D27 | ~86 yrs | 2015 | 186 | 710 | $1,332 | $928,750 |
| Twin Fountains | D25 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 418 | 1,119 | $1,331 | $1.25M |
| Sea Esta | D18 | ~85 yrs | 2015 | 376 | 1,001 | $1,320 | $1.25M |
| 1 Canberra | D27 | ~85 yrs | 2015 | 665 | 1,055 | $1,309 | $1.25M |
| The Nautical | D27 | ~84 yrs | 2015 | 435 | 990 | $1,288 | $1.10M |
| Skies Miltonia | D27 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 420 | 743 | $1,280 | $943,000 |
| Sea Horizon | D18 | ~86 yrs | 2016 | 495 | 1,302 | $1,278 | $1.47M |
| Signature At Yishun | D27 | ~87 yrs | 2017 | 525 | 1,098 | $1,267 | $1.25M |
| Northwave | D25 | 99-yr | 2019 | 358 | 980 | $1,262 | $1.23M |
| Forestville | D25 | ~85 yrs | 2016 | 653 | 1,195 | $1,200 | $1.27M |
3 · Aging leaseholds on the same clock (~55–72 years left)
104 leasehold estates (150+ units) with a similar slice of lease remaining — the en-bloc belt.
Same lease left, location is everything
Even with lease decay held roughly constant, $psf ranges $838–$2,123 (2.5×). Neither unit size (-0.19) nor project size (-0.14) explains it — where the land sits does.
Amaryllis Ville (D11) tops it at $2,123; Lakepoint Condominium (D22) sits near $838 — same clock, the market pricing the land and its redevelopment upside. Below ~60 years, financing and CPF limits start to bite.
| Project | District | Lease left | TOP | Units | Size | $psf | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amaryllis Ville | D11 | ~70 yrs | 2004 | 311 | 980 | $2,123 | $2.03M |
| Gardenvista | D21 | ~72 yrs | 2006 | 318 | 1,130 | $1,981 | $1.84M |
| Costa Del Sol | D16 | ~70 yrs | 2004 | 906 | 1,346 | $1,960 | $2.35M |
| Caribbean At Keppel Bay | D4 | ~72 yrs | 2004 | 969 | 1,275 | $1,943 | $2.36M |
| Duchess Crest | D10 | ~68 yrs | 1998 | 251 | 1,571 | $1,934 | $2.58M |
| Bishan 8 | D20 | ~69 yrs | 1999 | 200 | 1,163 | $1,922 | $1.75M |
| Water Place | D15 | ~71 yrs | 2004 | 437 | 1,227 | $1,915 | $2.10M |
| Tanglin View | D3 | ~70 yrs | 2001 | 384 | 1,152 | $1,913 | $1.95M |
| Pebble Bay | D15 | ~67 yrs | 1997 | 510 | 1,894 | $1,856 | $3.48M |
| Bishan Point | D20 | ~70 yrs | 2005 | 164 | 1,184 | $1,828 | $1.71M |
| River Place | D3 | ~68 yrs | 2000 | 509 | 1,001 | $1,823 | $1.65M |
| Queens | D3 | ~71 yrs | 2002 | 722 | 1,184 | $1,807 | $1.86M |
| Spring Grove | D10 | ~64 yrs | 1996 | 325 | 1,389 | $1,798 | $2.20M |
| The Gardens At Bishan | D20 | ~70 yrs | 2004 | 756 | 1,152 | $1,783 | $1.75M |
| Central Green Condominium | D3 | ~65 yrs | 1995 | 412 | 1,292 | $1,746 | $2.11M |
| Tanglin Regency | D10 | ~67 yrs | 1998 | 210 | 877 | $1,710 | $1.46M |
| The Bencoolen | D7 | ~68 yrs | 1999 | 182 | 980 | $1,676 | $1.48M |
| Sanctuary Green | D15 | ~70 yrs | 2004 | 522 | 1,216 | $1,674 | $1.85M |
| The Quayside | D9 | ~67 yrs | 1998 | 228 | 1,389 | $1,673 | $2.22M |
| Kerrisdale | D8 | ~71 yrs | 2005 | 481 | 1,259 | $1,661 | $1.75M |
| Burlington Square | D7 | ~69 yrs | 1998 | 179 | 872 | $1,656 | $1.30M |
| Heritage View | D5 | ~69 yrs | 2000 | 618 | 1,195 | $1,654 | $1.85M |
| Casuarina Cove | D15 | ~66 yrs | 1996 | 160 | 1,389 | $1,636 | $2.06M |
| Tanjong Ria Condominium | D15 | ~66 yrs | 1997 | 168 | 1,206 | $1,623 | $1.58M |
| Costa Rhu | D15 | ~67 yrs | 1997 | 737 | 1,647 | $1,620 | $2.26M |
| The Springbloom | D19 | ~68 yrs | 1999 | 372 | 1,302 | $1,608 | $2.02M |
| Rafflesia Condominium | D20 | ~70 yrs | 2003 | 230 | 1,195 | $1,605 | $1.53M |
| Oleander Towers | D12 | ~68 yrs | 1998 | 318 | 1,152 | $1,604 | $1.55M |
| Chiltern Park | D19 | ~64 yrs | 1995 | 500 | 1,270 | $1,579 | $1.80M |
| Emerald Park | D3 | ~64 yrs | 1993 | 280 | 947 | $1,572 | $1.50M |
| Sunshine Plaza | D7 | ~70 yrs | 2001 | 160 | 1,044 | $1,571 | $1.45M |
| Cavendish Park | D21 | ~64 yrs | 1996 | 254 | 1,227 | $1,566 | $1.72M |
| Seasons View | D20 | ~69 yrs | 2000 | 224 | 1,141 | $1,529 | $1.44M |
| Astor Green | D21 | ~64 yrs | 1995 | 170 | 1,378 | $1,510 | $1.64M |
| Harbour View Towers | D4 | ~63 yrs | 1994 | 154 | 1,399 | $1,510 | $1.85M |
| Dover Parkview | D5 | ~66 yrs | 1997 | 686 | 969 | $1,459 | $1.33M |
| Bishan Park Condominium | D20 | ~64 yrs | 1994 | 320 | 1,346 | $1,448 | $1.85M |
| Simsville | D14 | ~67 yrs | 1998 | 522 | 1,238 | $1,443 | $1.46M |
| High Oak Condominium | D21 | ~69 yrs | 1999 | 192 | 1,211 | $1,433 | $1.50M |
| The Clearwater | D16 | ~70 yrs | 2001 | 420 | 1,356 | $1,401 | $1.58M |
| The Bayshore | D16 | ~66 yrs | 1997 | 1,038 | 1,012 | $1,387 | $1.30M |
| Central Grove | D14 | ~70 yrs | 2001 | 262 | 1,216 | $1,383 | $1.51M |
| Castle Green | D26 | ~66 yrs | 1997 | 664 | 1,152 | $1,375 | $1.32M |
| Regent Park | D5 | ~66 yrs | 1997 | 276 | 958 | $1,358 | $1.18M |
| Villa Marina | D15 | ~68 yrs | 1999 | 432 | 1,281 | $1,340 | $1.80M |
| Aquarius By The Park | D16 | ~69 yrs | 2001 | 720 | 1,206 | $1,332 | $1.34M |
| The Tropica | D18 | ~69 yrs | 2000 | 537 | 1,238 | $1,321 | $1.45M |
| Astoria Park | D14 | ~66 yrs | 1995 | 354 | 979 | $1,320 | $1.25M |
| Bayshore Park | D16 | ~55 yrs | 1986 | 1,083 | 936 | $1,313 | $1.25M |
| Aston Mansions | D14 | ~68 yrs | 1998 | 159 | 1,216 | $1,304 | $1.22M |
| Seasons Park | D26 | ~68 yrs | 1997 | 390 | 1,249 | $1,300 | $1.29M |
| Mandarin Gardens | D15 | ~55 yrs | 1986 | 1,006 | 1,550 | $1,298 | $1.88M |
| East Meadows | D16 | ~71 yrs | 2002 | 482 | 1,216 | $1,293 | $1.45M |
| Faber Crest | D5 | ~69 yrs | 2001 | 360 | 1,259 | $1,282 | $1.51M |
| Casafina | D16 | ~69 yrs | 1999 | 224 | 1,281 | $1,265 | $1.45M |
| Southaven I | D21 | ~67 yrs | 1997 | 157 | 1,335 | $1,253 | $1.55M |
| Parc Oasis | D22 | ~64 yrs | 1994 | 950 | 1,227 | $1,231 | $1.44M |
| Tropical Spring | D18 | ~70 yrs | 2002 | 242 | 1,378 | $1,217 | $1.44M |
| The Mayfair | D22 | ~69 yrs | 2000 | 452 | 1,184 | $1,216 | $1.27M |
| The Tanamera | D16 | ~63 yrs | 1994 | 288 | 1,324 | $1,216 | $1.43M |
| Guilin View | D23 | ~69 yrs | 1999 | 655 | 1,259 | $1,207 | $1.37M |
| Modena | D18 | ~70 yrs | 2001 | 230 | 1,496 | $1,203 | $1.64M |
| West Bay Condominium | D5 | ~64 yrs | 1994 | 318 | 1,216 | $1,186 | $1.18M |
| Regentville | D19 | ~69 yrs | 1999 | 580 | 1,152 | $1,176 | $1.15M |
| Maysprings | D23 | ~67 yrs | 1998 | 636 | 1,292 | $1,175 | $1.20M |
| Eastpoint Green | D18 | ~69 yrs | 1999 | 646 | 1,130 | $1,174 | $1.13M |
| Westmere | D22 | ~69 yrs | 1999 | 280 | 1,249 | $1,173 | $1.25M |
| Hilltop Grove | D23 | ~69 yrs | 2001 | 192 | 1,238 | $1,166 | $1.18M |
| Parc Vista | D22 | ~68 yrs | 1998 | 638 | 1,119 | $1,147 | $1.23M |
| Stratford Court | D16 | ~68 yrs | 1998 | 268 | 1,248 | $1,143 | $1.37M |
| Pinevale | D18 | ~70 yrs | 1999 | 322 | 1,292 | $1,142 | $1.21M |
| Yishun Emerald | D27 | ~71 yrs | 2002 | 436 | 1,206 | $1,138 | $1.17M |
| Westcove Condominium | D5 | ~68 yrs | 1998 | 234 | 1,206 | $1,132 | $1.29M |
| The Rivervale | D19 | ~70 yrs | 2000 | 671 | 1,302 | $1,127 | $1.35M |
| Far Horizon Gardens | D20 | ~55 yrs | 1986 | 270 | 1,389 | $1,124 | $1.42M |
| Evergreen Park | D19 | ~68 yrs | 1999 | 394 | 1,076 | $1,110 | $1.07M |
| The Floravale | D22 | ~70 yrs | 2000 | 754 | 1,313 | $1,110 | $1.26M |
| The Florida | D19 | ~70 yrs | 2000 | 496 | 1,302 | $1,109 | $1.31M |
| Northvale | D23 | ~68 yrs | 1998 | 762 | 1,270 | $1,107 | $1.15M |
| Yishun Sapphire | D27 | ~71 yrs | 2001 | 380 | 1,216 | $1,106 | $1.27M |
| Sunrise Gardens | D28 | ~68 yrs | 1998 | 252 | 1,292 | $1,100 | $1.36M |
| Simei Green Condominium | D18 | ~69 yrs | 1999 | 602 | 1,195 | $1,097 | $1.12M |
| Palm Gardens | D23 | ~69 yrs | 2000 | 694 | 1,206 | $1,078 | $1.25M |
| Yew Mei Green | D23 | ~70 yrs | 2000 | 712 | 1,292 | $1,076 | $1.21M |
| Seletar Springs Condominium | D28 | ~70 yrs | 2000 | 362 | 1,335 | $1,062 | $1.30M |
| Rivervale Crest | D19 | ~70 yrs | 2002 | 490 | 1,206 | $1,061 | $1.15M |
| Regent Heights | D23 | ~68 yrs | 1999 | 645 | 1,023 | $1,058 | $1.06M |
| Eastvale | D18 | ~69 yrs | 1999 | 312 | 1,195 | $1,054 | $1.12M |
| Bedok Court | D16 | ~55 yrs | 1985 | 280 | 2,271 | $1,048 | $2.20M |
| Chestervale | D23 | ~70 yrs | 1999 | 396 | 1,410 | $1,040 | $1.25M |
| Windermere | D23 | ~70 yrs | 1999 | 395 | 1,453 | $1,034 | $1.25M |
| Pine Grove | D21 | ~57 yrs | — | 660 | 1,755 | $1,027 | $1.77M |
| Orchid Park Condominium | D27 | ~64 yrs | 1994 | 615 | 1,060 | $1,023 | $970,000 |
| Regent Grove | D23 | ~70 yrs | 2000 | 553 | 1,173 | $1,021 | $1.10M |
| Summerdale | D22 | ~70 yrs | 2000 | 432 | 1,270 | $1,011 | $1.26M |
| Woodgrove Condominium | D25 | ~70 yrs | 1999 | 248 | 1,518 | $1,003 | $1.34M |
| Parkview Apartments | D23 | ~67 yrs | 1998 | 532 | 1,119 | $990 | $959,000 |
| Elias Green | D18 | ~64 yrs | 1994 | 419 | 1,528 | $965 | $1.28M |
| Euphony Gardens | D27 | ~71 yrs | 2001 | 304 | 1,200 | $962 | $1.05M |
| Melville Park | D18 | ~65 yrs | 1996 | 1,232 | 1,044 | $961 | $920,000 |
| Loyang Valley | D17 | ~55 yrs | 1985 | 362 | 1,507 | $931 | $1.45M |
| Woodsvale | D25 | ~70 yrs | 2000 | 696 | 1,292 | $921 | $1.08M |
| Northoaks | D25 | ~70 yrs | 2000 | 720 | 1,249 | $911 | $1.09M |
| Lakepoint Condominium | D22 | ~56 yrs | — | 304 | 1,884 | $838 | $1.67M |
Cross-check — matched pairs
The curve above pools projects; two matched-pairs studies reach the same verdict from a different angle. Each pairs two projects alike in district, tenure, era and MRT distance but differing in size, and compares where each trades today — isolating the size effect one pair at a time.
Boutique vs large
Pair a boutique project against a larger one nearby that is otherwise alike, and the larger project trades at a higher current $psf. The size premium is real; the sweet spot for liquidity and pricing power sits around 300–600 units, and the edge is clearest in the prime districts. Read the full matched-pairs study ›
Medium vs mega
Push from a ~400-unit medium project up to an 800+ unit mega one and $psf still rises in the heartland — about +16% in the OCR (suburbs) and +10% in the RCR (city fringe). But in the prime CCR the pattern flips to roughly flat (~+1% median): at that price point exclusivity outsells scale. Size helps in the heartland; it dilutes in the prime core — the same story the leasehold vs freehold split shows above. Read the full matched-pairs study ›