New launch vs resale: which made more money?
- Over 25 years, buying resale and selling resale returned more per deal (~+34%) than buying a new launch and selling later (~+27%) — the developer premium ate the gains. A new launch is not a sure win.
- What new launches do offer (since 2011): a higher hit-rate — ~80% sold at a profit vs ~71% for resale — and smaller losses, not bigger average gains.
- In our five case studies, new launch won 2, resale won 1, and 2 tied — the wins came where the launch was priced at/below nearby resale; the loss came from overpaying prime leasehold at the peak.
- The new-launch buyer forgoes ~$150k–$210k of rent over the 3–4 build years — the hidden cost its later appreciation must beat.
- Best for: new launch if you buy low on the developer ladder and hold 7+ years; resale if you want day-one rent, a bigger unit, or the premium looks stretched.
“Just buy a new launch — it always goes up.” It’s the most repeated line in Singapore property. But if you had the same budget and the same moment in time, would buying new from the developer really have beaten buying a resale next door? We put the belief against the evidence — the long-run record, and five real head-to-heads across five different markets.
The honest headline
The strongest evidence is an independent study of 450,000+ matched URA buy–sell pairs since 1995 — i.e. realised profit on the same unit, not $psf averages. Over the full 25 years, buying resale and selling resale actually returned more per deal than buying a new launch and selling it later. The developer premium ate the extra appreciation.
Average realised gain per deal — new-launch-then-resale vs resale-then-resale
Matched same-unit URA transaction pairs. The new-launch route trailed over 25 years; it only edges ahead in the more recent windows — and even then by ~1 percentage point.
The premium you actually pay
On a $psf basis a new launch looks 30–50% dearer than nearby resale — a scary headline. But new units are smaller, so on total price (quantum) the real gap a buyer swallows is usually only ~10–25%. That quantum premium — plus 3–4 years of forgone rent while the project is built — is exactly what the new launch’s later appreciation has to claw back before it’s ahead.
Five head-to-heads across five markets
Each case pairs a new launch with a matched resale nearby — chosen to be close on size, tenure and distance to MRT so we compare like with like (each card lists these). Entry $psf are the exact median in that year from historical URA transaction records; “now” $psf are our own URA last-12-month medians. Both sides are 99-yr leasehold unless noted.
CDL priced Caspian aggressively to reopen a frozen post-Lehman market. A 2009 buyer paid ~$648 psf for the brand-new launch vs ~$779 for the resale on the same street (both by Lakeside MRT, both ~700–850 units, both 99-yr) — then rode the Jurong Lake District story on a fresher lease.
The cautionary case. CapitaLand launched Sky Habitat at the very top of the 2012 market (~$1,600 psf) and later had to cut prices. A buyer who took the cheaper, similar-sized 99-yr resale a street away (Clover By The Park, ~$1,125) roughly tripled the return — even though Sky Habitat sits closer to Bishan MRT. Overpaying the launch premium at the peak is where ‘new’ hurts most.
Same town, same year, same tenure, same MRT. CDL launched Coco Palms (~$1,021) on cheap legacy land at roughly the same $psf as a 1-year-old resale next door (NV Residences, ~$1,114) — and a full new-build lifecycle compounded the gap.
A near dead-heat. The en-bloc wave and Paya Lebar Central lifted the whole corridor; because the resale alternative (Sims Urban Oasis) was itself only ~4 years old, the new-launch edge nearly vanished.
Too soon to separate. Both are up low-to-mid teens %; the 2021 launch premium is still being ‘worked off’, and Normanton Park’s distance from the MRT (~1.1 km) offsets its newer lease. The clear outperformance in the older cases only crystallised several years after completion.
Scorecard
| Market / area | New launch | Gain | Resale nearby | Gain | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jurong Lake District | Caspian | +148% | The Lakeshore | +92% | New |
| Bishan (D20) | Sky Habitat | +24% | Clover By The Park | +73% | Resale |
| Pasir Ris | Coco Palms | +66% | NV Residences | +25% | New |
| Eunos / Geylang (D14) | Parc Esta | +35% | Sims Urban Oasis | +28% | Tie |
| Clementi / Kent Ridge (D5) | Normanton Park | +11% | The Trilinq | +18% | Tie |
Tally: new launch won 2, resale won 1, 2 effectively tied. The wins clustered where the launch was priced at or below nearby resale (a weak market or cheap legacy land); the loss came from overpaying a prime leasehold at the peak.
So — which makes more money?
Neither, automatically. The label “new” is not the edge; the entry price and the timing are. A new launch beats resale when you buy near the bottom of the developer’s own price ladder — in a soft market, on cheap land — and hold long enough (7+ years) to recover the premium and the lost rent. A resale wins when the new-launch quantum premium is steep, when launch pricing is plateauing, when you want rent from day one or a bigger unit for the budget, or when you can find an under-priced resale below fair value.
Where does a specific launch sit on that ladder?
The whole game is telling a fairly-priced launch from a peak-of-the-ladder one — against the resale right next door. That’s the exact read our team does on a project before you commit.
Get a launch-vs-resale read on a project › · See the like-for-like premium study