HomeResearch › New-launch premium
Updated 11 Jul 2026 · 131,345 URA caveats · new sale vs resale

How much are buyers paying for a new launch?

TL;DR
+48%
headline gap (raw medians)
+38%
like-for-like premium
+43%
CCR (widest segment)
131k
caveats analysed

The headline gap vs the real premium

Stand in a showflat and the new launch looks a world apart from the tired resale block down the road — and the price says so, about +48% more per square foot. Some of that is product mix: the project is newer, often taller with a better facing, and sells smaller units (which carry a higher $psf). But strip those out — compare a new sale to a resale of the same tenure, size and district, at the same time — and a large, genuine premium remains: about +38% for newness itself.

Key finding: only about 19% of the headline gap is product mix (newer, taller, smaller units) — the rest, a genuine like-for-like premium of ~+38%, is what you actually pay for newness.

The premium by segment

The like-for-like premium is fairly uniform across the market — roughly 29–36% — marginally widest in the prime CCR and narrowest in the city-fringe RCR. Newness is priced similarly wherever you buy:

Like-for-like new-launch premium by segment

New-sale $psf over an equivalent resale unit, same district/tenure/size/time.
+0%+16%+33%+49%+43%CCR+40%RCR+35%OCR

By tenure and unit size

TenureLike-for-like premium
Freehold+46%
99-yr leasehold+36%
Unit sizeLike-for-like premium
<500 sqft+39%
500–700+37%
700–900+35%
900–1200+35%
≥1200+50%

Is the premium recoverable?

This is the question that matters. A premium you can resell is a fair price; one that evaporates is a cost. The evidence says most of the newness premium is not recoverable: a “brand-new” unit is only brand-new once. As the project ages into ordinary resale stock, its $psf drifts toward the district’s resale level, and the launch premium erodes over your holding period. What you keep is the location, tenure and genuine quality; what you lose is the freshness you paid for at launch.

Investor verdict

Paying a new-launch premium can make sense when the project has something the resale market will still pay for years later — scarcity, a protected view, a growth-node location, a top school catchment, or strong rentability. It rarely makes sense to pay a large premium (well above the ~+38% like-for-like norm) when a nearby resale offers the same tenure, location and rent at a much lower entry $psf.

Rule of thumb: the newness premium is a cost you mostly won’t recover. Pay it only for durable advantages, and price the launch against its real resale alternatives — not against the showflat.

How to use this before you buy

Find the true resale alternative

Pull nearby resale of the same tenure and size band in the Valuation tool and on the district page. That is the real benchmark — not the tired block the agent points to.

Size the premium you’re actually paying

If the launch is priced well above ~+38% over a like-for-like resale, ask what durable advantage justifies it. No answer means you’re paying for freshness you won’t recover.

Check the exit buyer and rent

Will a resale buyer or tenant still pay up in 5–10 years? Strong school, MRT (≤500 m), growth-node or family-demand support helps the premium hold; a generic location does not.

Mind the supply next door

Competing launches nearby cap resale pricing power. Check the GLS pipeline for the facing side before you pay up.

How is this worked out? — hedonic model, controls, sources & limits
Sample
131,345 private caveats (51,687 new sale). Sub-sales are modelled separately and excluded from the headline resale baseline.
Model
Hedonic OLS of log($psf) on a new-sale dummy (baseline = resale), with local ~2 km cluster fixed effects (finer than district, so a launch is benchmarked against resale on the same patch), a freehold dummy, log(unit size) and a time control — so the premium is like-for-like, not a mix effect. Repeated within region, tenure and size subsets.
Headline gap
Raw median new-sale $psf vs median resale $psf (last 12 months) — the number a buyer sees before controls.
Sources
URA Data Service caveats (past ~5 years); $psf outliers & en-bloc rows excluded.
Limits: a market-average premium conditional on the controls; a specific launch can differ. “Recoverability” is inferred from how newness fades, not a per-project forecast.
For educational purposes only — not financial advice.
Keep going: all research › · the floor premium › · value a specific unit ›