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Our launch price calls vs actual — the full scorecard

Anyone can look clever after the fact. For every launch we track, our page carries a pre-launch indicative $psf estimate — and once the developer starts selling, URA prints the actual price. Here is the whole scorecard, including the misses, for the 10 we’ve tracked into their launch.

The honest read: our estimates land a median 8% from the achieved price, with 6/10 within 10%. But note the direction: actual prices run a median +8% versus our estimate — because our band is anchored to nearby resale, hot launches in fast-rising precincts tend to beat it. Read the band as a grounded floor, and lean on the land-cost model and live take-up as cross-checks. That candour is the point — it’s the kind of advice you get from us.
10
launches called & scored
8%
median error
6/10
within 10%
+8%
median bias (actual vs est.)

Estimate vs actual

Each dot is a launch: our estimate across, the achieved price down. On the dashed line we called it exactly; above it, the market paid more than we estimated.

$1,500$1,500$2,000$2,000$2,500$2,500$3,000$3,000$3,500$3,500perfect call (estimate = actual)Our estimate $psfActual achieved $psfZion Road (River Green): est $3,215 vs actual $3,482.0 (+8%)Orchard Boulevard (GLS): est $3,622 vs actual $3,439.0 (-5%)Marina Gardens Lane: est $2,774 vs actual $2,976.0 (+7%)Chuan Park: est $2,296 vs actual $2,641.0 (+15%)Vela Bay: est $2,191 vs actual $2,613.0 (+19%)Pinery Residences: est $1,738 vs actual $2,552.0 (+47%)Faber Walk: est $2,171 vs actual $2,310.0 (+6%)Tengah Plantation (GLS): est $2,100 vs actual $2,230.0 (+6%)Otto Place (EC): est $1,821 vs actual $1,850.0 (+2%)Coastal Cabana (EC): est $1,643 vs actual $1,827.0 (+11%)

Every call

ProjectRegionOur estimateActual $psfMissSold
Zion Road (River Green)RCR$3,215$3,482.0+8%94%
Orchard Boulevard (GLS)CCR$3,622$3,439.0-5%80%
Marina Gardens LaneCCR$2,774$2,976.0+7%68%
Chuan ParkOCR$2,296$2,641.0+15%95%
Vela BayOCR$2,191$2,613.0+19%72%
Pinery ResidencesOCR$1,738$2,552.0+47%93%
Faber WalkRCR$2,171$2,310.0+6%95%
Tengah Plantation (GLS)OCR$2,100$2,230.0+6%100%
Otto Place (EC)EC$1,821$1,850.0+2%99%
Coastal Cabana (EC)EC$1,643$1,827.0+11%81%

Want this kind of honest read on a launch you’re weighing?

A licensed Crestbrick advisor will give you the straight version — where the price is likely to land, the downside, and whether it fits you.

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Crestbrick Pte Ltd · Estate Agent Licence No. L3010886H · Ivan Cai · CEA Reg. No. R060513E
Method: the estimate is each launch page’s indicative $psf band midpoint (resale-anchored, computed independently of the developer’s pricing); the actual is URA’s latest reported developer-sales median. Estimates update as nearby resale moves, so this is a live scorecard. See the pricing model and the fair-value track record. For education only — not financial advice.
Prices from URA developer sales via the URA Data Service, under the Singapore Open Data Licence v1.0. Not endorsed by any government agency.