What makes a new launch sell — the opening month decides
A launch’s first month is the single clearest signal of whether it was priced right. Across 49 recent launches (URA developer sales), the share sold in the opening month almost entirely predicts how fast the project clears — and whether you’re buying into momentum or an overhang.
TL;DR
- The opening month is destiny. Launches that sell ≥50% in month one reach 80% sold almost immediately (median 0 more months); weak openers take a median of 15 months to get there.
- The median launch sells 64% of launched units in the first month, and 67% of launches clear at least half on opening.
- The suburbs open fastest. OCR launches sell a median 70% in month one vs RCR 60% and CCR 43% — upgrader demand is deep and price-sensitive; prime is thinner and more selective.
- Use it as a live signal. URA publishes take-up monthly. A strong opener says the market validated the pricing; a slow one flags overhang risk — you may resell into unsold competing stock.
Best for: judging, in real time, whether a launch is priced to move.
64%
median first-month take-up
67%
launches ≥50% sold month one
0 vs 15
months to 80%: strong vs weak opener
49
launches analysed
How much sells in the first month
Distribution of opening-month take-up. Most launches clear a big share immediately — or clearly stall.
Strong openers finish; weak openers grind
Average cumulative % sold, month by month, split by opening strength. The two paths diverge immediately and rarely reconverge.
Opening take-up predicts the grind
Each dot is a launch: first-month take-up (across) vs months to reach 80% sold (down). Sell strong on opening and you’re done; open weak and the tail is long.
By region
Every launch, ranked by opening strength
Region
| Project | Region | Units | First month | Sold to date | Median $psf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skye At Holland | CCR | 666 | 99% | 100% | $3,316 |
| Emerald Of Katong | RCR | 846 | 99% | 100% | $2,839 |
| Tengah Garden Residences | OCR | 863 | 99% | 100% | $2,230 |
| Penrith | RCR | 462 | 97% | 98% | $2,918 |
| Lyndenwoods | RCR | 343 | 97% | 100% | $2,583 |
| Lentor Central Residences | OCR | 477 | 96% | 100% | $1,914 |
| Aurelle Of Tampines | OCR | 760 | 93% | 100% | $2,052 |
| Rivelle Tampines | OCR | 572 | 93% | 99% | $1,939 |
| Pinery Residences | OCR | 588 | 92% | 93% | $2,552 |
| River Modern | CCR | 455 | 91% | 93% | $3,464 |
| The Orie | RCR | 777 | 88% | 95% | $2,750 |
| Parktown Residence | OCR | 1,193 | 87% | 98% | $2,314 |
| Faber Residence | OCR | 399 | 87% | 95% | $2,310 |
| Zyon Grand | RCR | 706 | 84% | 89% | $3,361 |
| Norwood Grand | OCR | 348 | 84% | 90% | $2,072 |
| Chuan Park | OCR | 916 | 79% | 95% | $2,641 |
| Lentor Mansion | OCR | 533 | 77% | 100% | $2,185 |
| Vela Bay | OCR | 515 | 72% | 72% | $2,613 |
| Nava Grove | RCR | 552 | 69% | 100% | $2,770 |
| Coastal Cabana | OCR | 748 | 67% | 81% | $1,827 |
| Union Square Residences | RCR | 366 | 67% | 46% | $2,800 |
| Meyer Blue | RCR | 226 | 67% | 78% | $3,151 |
| Bagnall Haus | OCR | 113 | 66% | 92% | $2,480 |
| Elta | OCR | 501 | 65% | 81% | $2,521 |
| Hudson Place Residences | RCR | 327 | 64% | 64% | $2,465 |
| Otto Place | OCR | 600 | 60% | 99% | $1,850 |
| Upperhouse At Orchard Boulevard | CCR | 301 | 59% | 80% | $3,439 |
| Novo Place | OCR | 504 | 57% | 100% | $1,682 |
| Canberra Crescent Residences | OCR | 376 | 56% | 90% | $2,038 |
| Promenade Peak | RCR | 596 | 56% | 71% | $3,438 |
| Kassia | OCR | 276 | 56% | 82% | $2,066 |
| Newport Residences | CCR | 246 | 54% | 79% | $3,150 |
| 8@Bt | RCR | 158 | 53% | 70% | $2,813 |
| The Robertson Opus | CCR | 348 | 43% | 59% | $3,455 |
| One Marina Gardens | RCR | 937 | 42% | 68% | $2,976 |
| Arina East Residences | RCR | 107 | 39% | 77% | $2,984 |
| Sora | OCR | 440 | 33% | 51% | $2,470 |
| Pollen Collection Ii | OCR | 186 | 33% | 18% | $2,600 |
| Aurea | CCR | 188 | 31% | 36% | $2,907 |
| Bloomsbury Residences | RCR | 358 | 30% | 86% | $2,575 |
| The Hill @One-North | RCR | 142 | 30% | 99% | $2,305 |
| Narra Residences | OCR | 540 | 23% | 35% | $2,151 |
| Lentoria | OCR | 267 | 22% | 91% | $2,392 |
| The Sen | RCR | 347 | 22% | 37% | $2,410 |
| Amber House | RCR | 105 | 21% | 77% | $3,162 |
| The Collective At One Sophia | CCR | 367 | 17% | 27% | $2,732 |
| The Hillshore | RCR | 59 | 5% | 12% | $2,512 |
| W Residences Marina View - Singapore | CCR | 683 | 2% | 2% | $2,636 |
| Skywaters Residences | CCR | 146 | 1% | 3% | $5,001 |
How is this worked out? — source, definitions
Source
URA Data Service, Private Residential Property Units Sold by Developers (monthly). Project-level, unit-masked.
First-month take-up
units sold in the launch month ÷ units launched that month. Only projects whose launch month falls inside our data window are included (so the opening is observed, not inferred).
Caveats
A ~14-month data window caps “months to 80%” for very slow projects; phased launches can understate month-one take-up. A signal, not a forecast.
For educational purposes only — not financial advice.
Use this with: how every launch is selling now · the launch pipeline (each page shows its cohort absorption) · how launches are priced.
Developer-sales data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority via the URA Data Service, under the Singapore Open Data Licence v1.0. Not endorsed by any government agency.