Upgraders Demand — HomeVestor

Where upgraders surface next — flats reaching MOP in 2028–2030

HDB towns with flats crossing their 5-year MOP in 2028–2030 — the freshest upgrader wave — ranked by cohort size. Affordable upgrade price = the private home a typical household can buy after cashing out HDB equity. Each card opens the town’s private condos, flagging ★ best matches (also within 1 km of a popular primary school).

How it’s calculated: flats maturing = HDB units reaching 5-year MOP in 2028–2030 (data.gov.sg HDB Property Information). Affordable upgrade price = the town’s median resale equity used as a 25% downpayment at 75% LTV, net of buyer’s stamp duty (no ABSD — first property after selling the HDB). Worked example →

Standard · no clawbackAre these Plus or Prime flats? Does a subsidy clawback apply?

No — the 2028–2030 sellers are Standard flats, so the profits above are net and hold. A subsidy clawback only applies to Plus, Prime and older PLH flats, and all three carry a 10-year MOP. Those models only began in Nov 2021 (PLH) and Oct 2024 (Plus/Prime), so the earliest any of their flats can be sold is roughly 2031–2035. A flat reaching MOP in 2028–2030 must have been keyed by ~2023–2025 on a 5-year MOP — i.e. a Standard flat with no clawback.

When clawback bites (2031+): Plus/Prime/PLH owners repay HDB a % of the resale or valuation price, whichever is higher on first sale after the 10-year MOP, set per batch — Prime ≈9%, Plus ≈6–8%, PLH ≈6%. Example: a Prime 4-room bought ~$650k, resold ~$1.2M owes ~$108k — still $400k+ in gains. Affects the four prime towns (Rochor, Queenstown, Kallang/Whampoa, Bukit Merah) and any Plus/Prime launch once its cohort matures.

Sources: HDB — PLH model (27 Oct 2021) · HDB — Standard/Plus/Prime flat types & MOP · Oct 2024 launch clawbacks: 6–8% Plus, 9% Prime

The 2031+ pipeline — when the subsidy clawback starts to bite

The 2028–2030 wave is Standard flats (5-year MOP) — profits are net, no clawback. This next cohort differs: every Plus, Prime and legacy PLH project has a 10-year MOP and repays HDB a slice of the sale price. Below: every such project launched so far, its batch rate, and earliest sale year. Dollar figures are illustrative (batch rate × the town’s current 4-room resale median); blanks are unpublished by HDB.

How is this worked out? — MOP, clawback rates & sources

Earliest resale year

Estimated project completion + the 10-year MOP measured from key collection — the Oct 2024 Plus/Prime batch lands around 2039, the 2021–2024 PLH projects around 2037–2039. None can sell before the early-2030s, which is why the live 2028–2030 wave above is entirely clawback-free.

Clawback rates

Prime ≈9% (Crawford Heights), Plus 6–8% (Central Trio@AMK & Kembangan Wave 6%, Bayshore Vista/Palms 7%, Kallang View & Towner Breeze 8%), PLH ≈6%.

Worked example

A Prime 4-room repaying 9% on a $900k resale owes ~$81k — still six-figure equity for the next home. Dollar figures on the pipeline are illustrative (batch rate × the town’s current 4-room resale median).

Sources: HDB PLH model (27 Oct 2021), HDB Standard/Plus/Prime flat types & MOP, HDB Prime/Plus subsidy clawback rates. Town resale medians: data.gov.sg HDB Resale.

For educational purposes only — not financial advice.